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When Costs Rise, Prices Rise. When Costs Fall, What Happens to Prices?

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An Examination of Profits, Prices, Banking, Agriculture and Education in Barbados

By Glenroy D. Bispham MSc., MSc., BSc.

For several years, Barbadians have been asked to understand.

Understand that international freight costs increased.

Understand that fuel prices increased.

Understand that manufacturers increased their prices.

Understand that supply chains were disrupted.

Understand that wars, pandemics and geopolitical uncertainty affected the cost of doing business.

Understand that Barbados imports much of what it consumes and therefore cannot escape imported inflation.

And, to be fair, much of that explanation was legitimate.

Businesses do not operate in a vacuum. If the landed cost of goods rises, if electricity, insurance, wages, shipping, financing and other operating expenses increase, businesses cannot reasonably be expected to absorb every increase indefinitely.

But there is another side to the conversation that Barbados now needs to have.

When those costs decline, what happens to prices?

And if consumers were asked to accept substantial price increases because companies were facing higher costs, what should consumers conclude when some of those same sectors subsequently report very strong profits?

That question is not anti-business.

It is economics.

It is accountability.

And increasingly, it is a question about the kind of society Barbados intends to become.

Profit Is Not the Enemy

We should begin with something important.

There is nothing inherently wrong with profit.

Businesses require profits to invest, expand, employ people, absorb risk, modernise operations and provide returns to shareholders.

A supermarket making a profit is not evidence that consumers are being exploited.

A bank earning a profit is not evidence of wrongdoing.

Neither is a company obligated to sell its products at cost.

The real issue is therefore not:

“Are businesses making profits?”

The more intelligent question is:

“How are those profits being generated, how have margins changed, and are consumers benefiting when the costs that previously justified price increases subsequently decline?”

That is a very different question.

Consider the Banks

The numbers coming from Barbados’ commercial banking sector deserve attention.

According to a July 2026 Central Bank of Barbados paper, commercial banks generated BDS$752.1 million in operating income in 2025, including BDS$492.5 million in net interest income and BDS$259.6 million in non-interest income.

Fees and commissions alone amounted to BDS$152.6 million.

Pre-tax profit was approximately BDS$216 million. The Central Bank’s 2025 Financial Stability Report also records a 6.4 per cent increase in commercial-bank pre-tax profits.

But perhaps the most revealing part of the Central Bank’s analysis concerns deposits.

In 2012, commercial banks’ interest expense represented 31.9 per cent of their interest income. By 2025, that figure was only 2.2 per cent.

Commercial banks paid approximately BDS$10.2 million in interest on all deposits in 2025, while fees and commissions generated BDS$152.6 million.

Think about what that means.

The ordinary citizen places money in the banking system and may receive relatively little interest for allowing the institution to use those funds. That same citizen can then encounter account charges, transaction fees, loan charges and other costs when accessing financial services.

This does not mean that every banking fee is unreasonable. Banks have staff, technology, cybersecurity, regulatory, compliance and infrastructure costs.

But when banking profitability is substantial while deposit funding remains extremely inexpensive, the public is justified in asking whether the distribution of benefits between financial institutions and their customers remains equitable.

Interestingly, the Central Bank itself has now raised essentially that question.

That is significant.

Then There Is Retail

Massy provides another interesting case study, although an important qualification must immediately be made.

Massy Holdings is a large regional conglomerate. Its published financial statements should not be interpreted as representing profits generated solely in Barbados.

For financial year 2025, Massy Group reported revenue of approximately TT$15.833 billion and profit before tax of approximately TT$1.141 billion.

Its Integrated Retail portfolio reported approximately TT$9.897 billion in third-party revenue and TT$689 million in profit before tax. Revenue increased 4 per cent, profit before tax increased 4 per cent and EBITDA increased 6 per cent.

Barbados accounted for approximately 23 per cent of Integrated Retail revenue, but the published figures do not establish what portion of retail profit came specifically from Barbados.

That distinction matters.

Nevertheless, something else in the report deserves attention.

Massy’s discussion of its improved profitability pointed, among other factors, to disciplined expense management and what it described as “effective pricing strategies.”

Again, this is not evidence of improper pricing.

But surely it makes the public’s question reasonable:

How much of increased profitability represents genuine efficiency, increased sales and investment—and how much represents stronger margins embedded in prices?

That is the conversation Barbados should be having.

To its credit, Massy has also recently announced an expansion of its reduced-price essentials programme in Barbados from 200 to 300 products, while reopening its redeveloped Worthing supermarket following a BDS$46 million investment.

That should also form part of any balanced assessment.

The Difference Between Inflation Falling and Prices Falling

There is another economic concept that needs to be understood.

When we hear that inflation has fallen, that does not necessarily mean that prices have fallen.

It usually means prices are increasing more slowly.

If something moved from $10 to $12 during an inflationary period and subsequently remains at $12, inflation on that item may have stopped, but the household is still carrying the higher price level.

The Central Bank reported that Barbados’ inflation moderated considerably during 2025 as international oil and freight costs eased. It also noted that domestic policy measures helped contain some imported price pressures.

Therefore, the question becomes even more important.

If freight rates decline, international commodity prices moderate or tax concessions lower business costs, how quickly are those savings transmitted to consumers?

There can be legitimate delays.

Companies may hold inventory purchased at previous higher prices. Wages may have risen. Electricity, rents, insurance and other local costs may remain elevated. Currency movements and replacement inventory also matter.

But those explanations should be measurable.

This is why Barbados needs to move away from arguments based purely on assurances and towards data-based price transparency.

We Have Actually Regulated Mark-Ups Before—Voluntarily

There is precedent.

During the cost-of-living crisis, Government, retailers, distributors, manufacturers and producers entered voluntary price compacts.

In 2022, mark-ups on specified goods were generally targeted at approximately 12 to 15 per cent. In the subsequent compact, agreed distributor and manufacturer mark-ups included approximately 15 to 18 per cent on dry goods and up to 20 per cent on specified cold-storage products.

That demonstrates something important.

Margins are not some mysterious concept that cannot be discussed publicly.

Government and industry were capable of discussing them when prices were rising rapidly.

Why, then, should margin transparency become unacceptable once corporate profitability improves?

Publish the Evidence

I am not advocating general price controls.

Poorly designed price controls can cause shortages, reduce investment and create unintended consequences.

I am proposing transparency.

For a basket of essential products, Barbados should be capable of tracking:

the international purchase price;

freight and insurance;

duties and taxes;

landed cost;

distribution mark-up;

retail mark-up;

and final shelf price.

Not necessarily company by company in a manner that compromises commercially sensitive information, but at an aggregated sectoral level.

Then the Barbadian public could determine whether an increase was caused primarily by external costs, taxation, domestic distribution expenses—or margin expansion.

We should not have to guess.

And This Is Where Agriculture Enters the Discussion

Barbados’ cost-of-living problem cannot be separated from its agricultural problem.

Every time international food prices increase, shipping becomes disrupted or another geopolitical crisis occurs, Barbados is reminded that food security is national security.

Yet agricultural land remains underutilised in various parts of the country while development continuously competes for finite land.

We speak of artificial intelligence in agriculture.

We speak of drones.

Hydroponics.

Precision farming.

Greenhouses.

Climate-smart agriculture.

All of these have merit.

But technology cannot produce food from land that has been permanently removed from production.

And artificial intelligence cannot compensate for the absence of a coherent agricultural production system.

There has been some improvement. Central Bank estimates place agricultural output at approximately BDS$258.6 million in constant prices in 2025, up from BDS$228.6 million in 2024, while agricultural activity continued contributing to growth during the first half of 2026.

That is encouraging.

But agriculture should not merely be discussed as another economic sector.

It must become part of Barbados’ strategy for reducing its exposure to imported inflation.

From Farmer to Supermarket

There is another question that deserves attention.

If Barbados wants greater agricultural production, then agriculture cannot be viewed solely from the farmer’s side.

We must examine the entire value chain:

Land → Farmer → Processor → Distributor → Supermarket → Consumer.

Where is the greatest value being captured?

Who carries the greatest risk?

How quickly are farmers paid?

What percentage of the final retail price reaches the producer?

How much local produce is guaranteed shelf space?

What contractual arrangements exist between major retailers and domestic producers?

Could supermarkets enter long-term purchasing agreements with farmers?

Could financial institutions provide specialised agricultural financing at preferential rates?

Could farmers’ cooperatives obtain financing for refrigeration, packaging, storage and transportation?

That would connect the extraordinary financial strength of one part of the Barbadian economy with the weaknesses of another.

Imagine if even a small portion of the capital available within our financial system were deliberately channelled into modern agricultural production.

Then “AI in agriculture” would stop being a fashionable phrase and become an economic development strategy.

And That Takes Us to Education

At first glance, supermarkets, banks, agriculture and education may appear unrelated.

They are not.

Education determines whether the next generation understands how these systems work.

The Ministry of Educational Transformation says its mission is to create a modernised, relevant educational system responsive to national development needs.

Then our curriculum must prepare students to understand the economy they will inherit.

A Barbadian student should leave secondary school understanding:

inflation;

compound interest;

banking;

credit;

taxation;

profit margins;

entrepreneurship;

consumer rights;

investment;

food security;

agricultural economics;

technology;

artificial intelligence;

and basic national governance.

Why should a young person be capable of solving an algebraic equation but unable to calculate the real cost of a loan?

Why should students learn theories of production without understanding why Barbados imports so much of what it consumes?

Why should agriculture be treated as an occupation of yesterday when food technology, robotics, genetics, data analytics, renewable energy and artificial intelligence are transforming agriculture globally?

Education, agriculture and economic policy should be joined together.

Our schools could become laboratories for hydroponics, renewable energy, accounting, entrepreneurship, engineering and food production.

Agriculture could become STEM.

And economics could become citizenship.

The Larger Question: Who Benefits From Growth?

Ultimately, this discussion is larger than Massy.

It is larger than the banks.

And it should never be reduced to attacking successful companies.

Barbados needs profitable businesses.

Barbados needs strong banks.

Barbados needs foreign and domestic investment.

But Barbados also needs economic balance.

If GDP grows while households cannot afford food, something is wrong.

If banking profits grow while savers receive little return on their deposits, questions should be asked.

If supermarkets flourish while farmers struggle to access land, financing and guaranteed markets, something is structurally wrong.

If corporations become increasingly technologically sophisticated while schools remain disconnected from the economy students will enter, something is wrong.

And if every increase in international costs is quickly passed to consumers but every subsequent reduction in international costs disappears somewhere inside the supply chain, then the public has every right to ask:

Where did the savings go?

The Question Barbados Should Ask

I am not suggesting that the evidence proves widespread profiteering.

It does not.

Nor does a large absolute profit necessarily mean a large profit margin.

A company handling billions of dollars in sales can generate substantial profits while operating on relatively modest margins.

That nuance is important.

But equally dangerous would be accepting the opposite assumption—that every price increase was unavoidable and every subsequent profit merely incidental.

Both positions require evidence.

Therefore Barbados should require greater transparency, stronger competition, serious consumer-price analysis and public reporting on essential-goods margins.

And while we are doing that, we should use our financial system to finance production, our agricultural sector to reduce import dependence and our education system to produce citizens capable of understanding all three.

Because perhaps the greatest economic danger facing Barbados is not that businesses make profits.

It is that we create an economy in which profits are increasingly concentrated at the top of the value chain while costs, risks and sacrifices are increasingly concentrated at the bottom.

Workers carry the increased grocery bill.

Consumers carry the banking fees.

Farmers carry production risk.

Parents carry education costs.

Small businesses carry financing costs.

Meanwhile, the strongest institutions have the scale, technology, financing and market power to protect themselves.

That is not necessarily the result of conspiracy.

It may simply be the predictable outcome of an economic structure we have allowed to develop.

But if so, it is a structure we can change.

The objective should never be to punish success.

The objective should be to ensure that national prosperity is broader than corporate profitability.

So the next time Barbadians are told:

“Prices have to increase because our costs have increased,”

perhaps the appropriate response should be:

“Fair enough. Show us the numbers.”

And when those costs eventually decline, we should ask one more question:

“Now that your costs have fallen, when will our prices fall too?”

That is not hostility towards business.

That is how a mature society holds markets accountable.

And it may be one of the most important economic conversations Barbados needs to have.